Asian Handicap Explained, With Today's Lines

What an Asian handicap is

An Asian handicap is a way of pricing a football match so that both sides are close to an even chance. Instead of three outcomes (home win, draw, away win) there are only two. One team starts with a head start measured in goals, the match is played, and the head start is added to or taken off the final score. The side that is ahead after that adjustment covers the handicap. Because the draw is removed or turned into a push, an Asian handicap is easier to read than a 1X2 price when one team is clearly stronger.

The name comes from the Asian bookmaking market where the style became standard, but there is nothing about it that applies only to Asian competitions. This page lists the latest Asian handicap and over/under lines for matches about to kick off in the competitions LMEX follows, and explains how to read them. It is reference information. LMEX does not take bets, does not recommend a bookmaker and shows no links to one.

Whole, half and quarter lines

A line is written from the point of view of one team. A minus sign means that team gives goals and a plus sign means it receives them. On LMEX the line shown is always the home side's, so Man City -0.75 means Man City give 0.75 of a goal.

• A half line such as -0.5 or +1.5 can never end level, so there is always a winner. Man City -0.5 wins if Man City win the match by any score, and loses if they draw or lose. Chelsea +0.5 wins if Chelsea win or draw.
• A whole line such as -1 or +2 can end level after the adjustment. If Man City -1 win by exactly one goal, the stake is returned. This is called a push. They win the bet by two goals or more and lose it if they win by less or do not win.
• A line of 0, also called draw no bet, returns the stake if the match is drawn and otherwise follows the match winner.
• A quarter line such as -0.25 or -0.75 splits the stake over the two nearest lines. Man City -0.75 is half the stake on -0.5 and half on -1. Win by one goal and the half on -0.5 wins while the half on -1 is returned, so the bet wins half. Win by two or more and both halves win. Draw or lose and both halves lose.

The same logic applies in reverse for the side with a plus sign. Chelsea +0.75 is half the stake on +0.5 and half on +1. A win or a draw wins the whole stake, a one-goal defeat loses half and returns half, and a defeat by two or more loses everything.

What the numbers beside a line mean

Each line has two prices, one for each side. LMEX shows them as Hong Kong odds, which give the profit on a stake of one unit. A price of 0.90 means that a stake of 100 returns a profit of 90 and your 100 back. To compare with the decimal odds you may be used to, add 1, so 0.90 is 1.90 in decimal.

The two prices of a line add up to more than 100% once you convert them to probabilities. The difference is the bookmaker's margin. For a pair of 0.92 and 0.92 the margin is about 4%. We remove it before drawing any conclusion from a price, so that when we say the market gives a team 50% to cover, that figure already has the margin taken out.

Reading a line move

The page shows the opening line when we first saw it and the latest line. If the home side opened at -0.5 and is now -0.75, the market has become more confident about the home side, or money has come in on it. A move in the price without a move in the line, for example from 0.92 to 0.85 on the same side, shows the same pressure on a smaller scale. A move is information about the market, not a prediction. Lines move for many reasons, including team news that we do not see.

Over/under goals

Alongside the handicap we show an over/under line, such as 2.5 goals. Over wins if the total goals in the match are above the line and under wins if they are below it. Half lines such as 2.5 never push. Whole lines such as 3 return the stake if exactly three goals are scored, and quarter lines such as 2.75 split the stake over 2.5 and 3 in the same way as handicap quarter lines.

Where our prices come from

All lines on LMEX come from one Asian bookmaker, fetched every 20 minutes for matches in the next day or two. We use a single source so that prices are comparable from match to match, which means they are not the best price in the market and may differ from the one you see elsewhere. Lines usually appear one to two days before kick-off. A match that does not yet have a line shows that no price is available, and we never invent one.

How this connects to our predictions

The line and its prices are the input of the football predictions published by LMEX. Our rule estimates the chance of each side covering the line from recent form and compares that with the chance the market implies once the margin is removed. The full method, the six steps and the public record of wins and losses are on the football predictions pages. We publish only when the two differ by a clear margin, and say no prediction otherwise.

Frequently asked questions

What is Asian handicap?

It is a bet on a football match in which one team is given a head start, in goals, to make the contest closer to even. The head start is added to the final score and the side that is ahead after the adjustment wins. Because the draw is removed, there are two outcomes instead of three.

How does Asian handicap work with a quarter line like -0.75?

The stake is split over the two nearest lines, here -0.5 and -1. If the team wins by one goal, half of the stake wins and half is returned, so the bet pays half. If it wins by two or more, the whole stake wins. If it draws or loses, the whole stake loses.

What does Asian handicap 0 mean?

A line of 0 is also called draw no bet. If the team you chose wins, the bet wins. If it loses, the bet loses. If the match is drawn, the stake is returned.

What does Asian handicap -0.5 mean?

The team with -0.5 must win the match, by any score, for the bet to win. If the match is drawn or the team loses, the bet loses. The opposite side, +0.5, wins if its team wins or draws.

Does the handicap include extra time?

Normally not. Unless the rules of a bookmaker say otherwise, football bets are settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. LMEX settles its own predictions on the full-time score and does not count extra time or penalties.

Sources

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_handicap
• https://www.theifab.com/laws-of-the-game-documents/